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Determinants of Road Traffic Safety: New Evidence from Australia using a State-Space Analysis

Nghiem, S, Connelly, L

Road Safety Programs

ARSC conference 2015

This paper examines determinants of road and traffic crash fatalities in Queensland in the 1973-2007 period using a state-space time-series model. In particular, we investigate the effects of policies that aimed to reduce drink-driving and economic environment to traffic fatalities. The results show that random breath testing reduced fatalities by 10 per cent and that the zero BAC for young drivers reduced fatalities by 15 per cent. Reductions in economic activity also lead to reductions in road fatalities, estimating that a one per cent increase in the unemployment rate leads to a reduction of traffic fatalities of 0.22 per cent.